Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | 59% YES | 42% NO |
A Canadian province scheduling a referendum on secession would represent a significant constitutional moment. Currently, Polymarket's order book is pricing this event at 59% probability through end-2026, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about whether any provincial government will formally commit to holding such a vote within the next two years. The market distinguishes between political rhetoric about separation and the concrete step of officially scheduling a referendum, which requires legislative action and represents a material escalation in separatist intent.
Quebec remains the primary historical precedent, having held two referendums on sovereignty (1980 and 1995), with the latter narrowly defeated at 50.58% against separation. Alberta has periodically experienced separatist sentiment, though mainstream political parties have largely avoided formal referendum proposals. More recently, discussions around provincial autonomy have intensified in Alberta and Saskatchewan, particularly regarding resource management and federal fiscal policy, though these grievances have not yet crystallised into scheduled referendums. The 59% implied probability suggests traders assess meaningful but not overwhelming odds of escalation.
Key catalysts include Alberta's political calendar and any shifts in provincial leadership toward separatist platforms, particularly following federal-provincial disputes over energy policy or equalisaton payments. The Danielle Smith government in Alberta has emphasised provincial autonomy but stopped short of scheduling independence votes. Traders should monitor provincial election cycles, federal policy announcements affecting resource provinces, and statements from provincial legislatures regarding constitutional matters. Any formal legislative motion to schedule a referendum would likely move markets substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$399K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for canada contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $201 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 59%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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