Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Canadian federal election held on 25 September 2025 returned a minority Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with 119 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons. The market assesses whether the Liberal Party will command 170 seats—an outright majority—at any point between 12 December 2025 and 30 June 2026. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extremely low likelihood of the Liberals gaining 51 additional seats through defections, by-elections, or other parliamentary mechanics within this six-month window.
Historical precedent suggests such seat gains are exceptionally rare in Canadian politics. The last time a minority government converted to majority status was in 1974, when Pierre Trudeau's Liberals gained seats in a snap election. Defections large enough to swing a minority to majority are virtually unprecedented in modern Canadian parliamentary history. The Bloc Québécois holds 32 seats and the NDP holds 25, making coordinated defection implausible. By-elections, even if held, cannot realistically produce the 51-seat swing required.
The primary catalyst for market movement would be an unexpected dissolution of Parliament before 30 June 2026, which would trigger a "No" resolution regardless of Liberal seat count. Political instability could emerge if confidence-and-supply arrangements fracture, though the NDP's formal support agreement with the Liberals through 2025 provides near-term stability. Budget votes and supply legislation scheduled for early 2026 represent key dependency points where parliamentary arithmetic will be tested.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$256K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for canada contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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