Trade: California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $223
- Total Volume
- $460
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $318
Market outcomes
| California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30? | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Market context
AB 2624, known as the "Privacy for Immigration Support Services Providers" bill, would restrict California law enforcement and state agencies from disclosing information about individuals seeking immigration support services without a warrant or court order. The legislation targets what supporters characterise as overreach by state officials in sharing data with federal immigration authorities. The bill requires passage through both chambers of the California State Legislature and gubernatorial signature to become law by the June 2026 deadline.
California's legislative history on immigration-related privacy measures shows mixed outcomes. Previous attempts to shield immigrant data, including provisions within broader privacy legislation, have faced resistance from law enforcement groups and fiscal concerns. The current 6% implied probability on Polymarket reflects scepticism about the bill's passage within the timeframe, suggesting traders assess significant hurdles in the legislative process. The order book pricing indicates minimal conviction either direction, with wide spreads typical of low-probability outcomes.
Key catalysts include the California legislative calendar, with bills typically facing critical junctures during spring committee hearings and floor votes. Traders should monitor committee assignments, amendments that might broaden or narrow the bill's scope, and any statements from Governor Newsom's office regarding his position on immigration data-sharing restrictions. Recent legislative activity on related privacy measures, particularly those affecting state-federal cooperation on immigration enforcement, will signal momentum. The bill's fate may also depend on broader political dynamics around immigration policy in California heading into 2026.
Wikipedia Context
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California State University, NorthridgeCalifornia State University, Northridge, is a public university in the Northridge neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, United States. With a total enrollment of 36,960 students, it has the fourth largest total student body in the California State University system. The size of CSUN also has a major impact on the California economy, with an estimated $1.9
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California State Polytechnic University, PomonaCalifornia State Polytechnic University, Pomona is a public polytechnic research university in Pomona, California, United States. It is the largest of the three polytechnic universities in the California State University system by enrollment.
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California State Route 1State Route 1 (SR 1) is a major north–south state highway that runs along most of the Pacific coastline of the U.S. state of California. At 656 miles (1,056 km), it is the longest state route in California, and the second-longest in the US after Montana Highway 200. SR 1 has several portions designated as either Pacific Coast Highway (PCH), Cabrillo Highway,
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California State University, Long BeachCalifornia State University, Long Beach, also known in athletics as Long Beach State University (LBSU), is a public research university in Long Beach, California, United States. The 322-acre campus is the second largest in the California State University system (CSU).
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 6% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1667 if YES resolves true — a 1567% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$460 in lifetime turnover and $223 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for california contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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