Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| OpenAI | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Xerox | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| SoundHound AI | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| JetBlue Airways | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Lucid | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Anthropic | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Rivian | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Lovable | 9% YES | 92% NO |
The question centres on whether any major publicly listed company will announce bankruptcy proceedings before the close of 2026. The 5% implied probability reflects current market pricing across Polymarket's order book, where traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of such announcements within the next two years. This baseline probability incorporates both the resilience of large-cap equities in the current macroeconomic environment and the historical rarity of Fortune 500 bankruptcies during stable economic periods.
Historical precedent suggests that corporate bankruptcy announcements cluster during specific economic conditions. The 2008 financial crisis saw multiple major bankruptcies announced within months—Lehman Brothers, General Motors, and Chrysler among them—whilst the 2020 pandemic downturn produced selective failures in retail and hospitality sectors. Outside acute crises, large-cap bankruptcies remain statistically uncommon, occurring at roughly 0.5–1% annually across the S&P 500. The current probability of 5% for a two-year window aligns with this historical distribution, assuming no major economic shock.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: quarterly earnings reports revealing deteriorating liquidity positions, covenant breach announcements, credit rating downgrades from major agencies, and shifts in refinancing conditions. Recent volatility in commercial real estate and regional banking sectors has drawn scrutiny, though systemic stress remains contained as of late 2024. Specific watch points include companies with significant debt maturities clustering in 2025–2026 and those exposed to sector-specific disruption. Any material deterioration in credit spreads or sudden liquidity events would shift implied probabilities materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$131K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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