Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| September 30 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| December 31 | 83% YES | 17% NO |
Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) operates with eleven justices, and vacancies arise through retirement or death. President Lula currently faces the question of whether he will announce a nomination to fill a seat before the end of 2026. The market's 48% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about timing, as Lula may defer such announcements into his second term or face unexpected vacancies requiring rapid action. On Polymarket's order book, this probability has formed through traders weighing the likelihood of a nomination announcement within the specified window against the possibility that no vacancy materialises or that Lula chooses to delay the process.
Historical precedent suggests nominations occur irregularly rather than on predictable schedules. Justice Rosa Weber retired in October 2023, with her replacement announced relatively promptly, whilst other vacancies have created extended periods of speculation. The STF's current composition and any health concerns among sitting justices would inform expectations; however, retirements typically occur when justices reach the mandatory retirement age of 75. Recent reporting from Brazilian media outlets has not flagged imminent retirements among current justices as of late 2024, which may explain why traders assign only moderate probability to an announcement within the next two years.
Catalysts to monitor include official statements from the Presidency regarding judicial appointments, announcements of retirements or health issues affecting current justices, and any political developments that might accelerate or delay Lula's nomination strategy. The market settles on announcement alone, not confirmation, meaning even preliminary statements from the Presidential office would trigger resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$267 in lifetime turnover and $690 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for brazil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $267 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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