Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person K | — | |
| Person N | — | |
| Person O | — | |
| Person T | — | |
Brazil will hold its presidential election on 4 October 2026, with this market tracking which candidate finishes third in the first round of voting. The current order book on Polymarket reflects 0% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing in either extreme uncertainty about third-place positioning or confidence in a specific outcome dominating the market. The third-place finish carries particular significance in Brazilian electoral dynamics, as it determines which candidates might advance to potential runoff scenarios and shapes coalition-building narratives in the months following the first round.
Historical precedent from Brazil's 2022 election saw Ciro Gomes finish third with 3.04% of valid votes, whilst Simone Tebet secured fourth place with 1.6%. The 2018 election produced a more fragmented third-place result, with Marina Silva capturing 1.27% of votes. These patterns suggest third-place finishes typically range between 1-4% of the electorate, though this varies considerably depending on candidate viability and campaign momentum. Current polling aggregates remain sparse for the 2026 cycle, making historical volatility a key reference point for assessing how concentrated or dispersed the third-place vote might become.
Key catalysts include official candidate registration deadlines, scheduled campaign periods, and polling releases from major Brazilian institutes. The electoral calendar will tighten considerably in mid-2026 as the campaign formally begins. Traders should monitor shifts in consolidated polling data and any late-entry candidates who might reshape the competitive landscape, particularly from centre-left or centre-right blocs that could fragment the third-place positioning.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$273K in lifetime turnover and $143K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for brazil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $429 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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