Trade: Second highest grossing movie this weekend (May 8)

Opened 8 May 2026 · Settles 11 May 2026 · 2 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the second most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of May 8 - 10. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 8 - 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $25K
24h Volume: $8K
Open Interest: $15K

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Market outcomes

Movie A	—
Movie C	—
Movie K	—
Other	—
Michael	0% YES	100% NO
Movie B	—
Movie E	—
Movie J	—

Market context

The second-highest grossing film at the domestic box office for the weekend of 8–10 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution. Settlement relies on final three-day weekend figures from The Numbers' Box Office tab, with alphabetical ordering as the tiebreaker should two films report identical grosses.

Historical precedent suggests the second-place position typically fluctuates between established franchises and new releases depending on the competitive landscape. May weekends have historically featured mixed performance patterns—some years see a dominant number-one film with clear separation from runners-up, whilst others show tighter clustering among the top three performers. The absence of current order book pricing reflects the market's early stage; as the weekend approaches and studio forecasts circulate, implied probabilities will sharpen around the most likely contenders based on pre-release tracking data and comparable opening weekends.

Traders should monitor studio release schedules and marketing spend announcements in the weeks preceding the settlement window, as these typically correlate with box office performance. Trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter regularly publish weekend forecasts and tracking updates that influence market sentiment. International release dates and franchise momentum from prior instalments also shape domestic performance expectations. The final resolution depends entirely on The Numbers' published figures, which are typically finalised by the Tuesday following the weekend, allowing traders to assess actual performance against pre-weekend positioning before the 11 May settlement deadline.

Wikipedia Context

1990 in film
The year 1990 in film involved many significant events as shown below. Universal Pictures celebrated its 75th anniversary in 1990, despite its actual 75th anniversary taking place in 1987.
Hilal-i-Jur'at
The Hilal-e-Jurat is the second-highest military award of Pakistan out of a total of four gallantry awards that were created in 1957. In order of rank it comes after the Nishan-e-Haider coming before the Sitara-e-Jurat.
Second High School Attached to Beijing Normal University
The Second High School Attached to Beijing Normal University (北京师范大学第二附属中学) is a public secondary school in Xicheng, Beijing, China. The school was founded in 1953.
Second Hughes ministry
The Second Hughes ministry was the 12th ministry of the Government of Australia. It was led by the country's 7th Prime Minister, Billy Hughes. The Second Hughes ministry succeeded the First Hughes ministry, which dissolved on 14 November 1916 following the split that took place within the governing Labor Party over the issue of conscription. This led to Hugh

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Second highest grossing movie this weekend (May 8)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$25K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for box office contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Second highest grossing movie this weekend (May 8)"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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