Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Bitcoin's price according to Chainlink's BTC/USD data feed is higher or equal at 2:45PM ET on 7 May 2026 compared to 2:40PM ET that same day. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility, making it sensitive to brief price movements rather than directional conviction.
Five-minute Bitcoin price windows historically exhibit near-random behaviour absent major news catalysts. Tick-by-tick movements within such narrow timeframes are driven primarily by order flow imbalances, algorithmic trading, and microstructure effects rather than fundamental shifts. The 0% implied probability for "Up" suggests the market is pricing in either a slight bearish bias or reflecting the difficulty of predicting such short-duration moves with confidence. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on volatile assets typically show probabilities clustered near 50%, making this extreme reading notable.
Traders should monitor whether any significant announcements or economic data releases are scheduled near the settlement window. US economic calendar items, Federal Reserve communications, or major cryptocurrency exchange developments could trigger directional momentum. The Chainlink data feed itself introduces a dependency on oracle accuracy and any potential divergence between Chainlink's pricing and spot market prices during the five-minute interval. Broader Bitcoin volatility patterns on 7 May—whether the asset is in a consolidation phase or trending strongly—will establish the microstructure environment in which this narrow window settles.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$88K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $88K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: