Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <72,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| 80,000-82,000 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 84,000-86,000 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 88,000-90,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
This market resolves to "Yes" if Bitcoin's BTC/USDT pair on Binance closes above a specified price level at noon ET on 13 May 2026. The settlement mechanism relies on the 1-minute candle close at that precise timestamp, with Binance serving as the sole authoritative price source. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal trading activity on this specific contract or a consensus that the price bracket in question sits substantially above Bitcoin's anticipated range for that date.
Bitcoin's price discovery over multi-year horizons has historically been shaped by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and institutional adoption trends rather than single-day price movements. The 2024–2026 period encompasses potential shifts in US monetary policy, corporate treasury allocations, and spot exchange-traded fund flows—all factors that influence medium-term price trajectories. Previous Bitcoin halving cycles (2020, 2024) have demonstrated that price volatility clusters around specific events, though predicting exact price levels months in advance remains exceptionally difficult given the asset's sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, major cryptocurrency regulatory developments, and macroeconomic data releases in the months preceding May 2026. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment has strengthened since 2023, making broader market conditions relevant. The current zero probability suggests the market has priced in either extreme confidence in a particular price range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Order book depth on Polymarket will determine whether tighter spreads emerge as the settlement date approaches.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin price on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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