Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 72,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 74,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 76,000 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 82,000 | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| 84,000 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 86,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 88,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 90,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 13 May 2026, with resolution determined by the 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The current 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will close above the specified threshold at that precise moment. On Polymarket's order book, this probability is formed through active trading between participants pricing the likelihood of Bitcoin trading above the strike level during that single-minute window.
Bitcoin's price action at specific timestamps has historically shown considerable volatility, particularly around institutional trading hours and US market opens. The noon ET window coincides with overlap between US and European trading sessions, periods that typically see elevated volume and tighter spreads on major exchanges. Historical precedent suggests that single-minute candle closes can deviate significantly from broader daily trends, as localised order flow and stop-loss cascades often drive intraday micro-movements. The 100% probability reading should be contextualised against the inherent uncertainty in predicting any single minute of price action across a two-year timeframe.
Key variables affecting Bitcoin's trajectory into May 2026 include Federal Reserve policy decisions, regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, and macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment remains material; any significant shift in monetary policy or geopolitical events could alter volatility profiles substantially. Traders should monitor announcements from the SEC regarding spot Bitcoin ETF regulations and any major institutional adoption news, as these have historically moved spot prices meaningfully. The extended settlement window means that unforeseen market structure changes or exchange-level technical issues could also influence the final resolution outcome.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$148K in lifetime turnover and $269K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $71K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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