Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 70,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 72,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 74,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 76,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 78,000 | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| 80,000 | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| 82,000 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| 84,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the noon Eastern Time candle on 11 May 2026. The settlement hinges on a single one-minute candle's close price, making it sensitive to intraday volatility and order flow timing rather than broader directional conviction. The current 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to expected spot levels, or minimal liquidity depth in the order book at present.
Bitcoin's historical volatility around specific calendar dates offers limited predictive value for single-candle outcomes. Spot prices at major exchanges like Binance typically converge within tight ranges during liquid trading hours, though the noon ET window sits outside peak US market hours. The 2026 timeframe extends well beyond conventional technical analysis horizons, making historical precedent less applicable than for near-term contracts. Traders should note that the probability formation on Polymarket's order book reflects only the liquidity currently posted; wide bid-ask spreads or thin order books can produce extreme implied probabilities that don't reflect genuine market consensus.
Catalysts between now and May 2026 remain unknowable at this distance, though macroeconomic policy shifts, regulatory announcements, and institutional adoption developments typically drive Bitcoin's directional moves. Spot prices respond to broader market conditions rather than calendar-specific events. The noon ET settlement time itself carries no inherent significance to Bitcoin markets, meaning the resolution depends on wherever spot trading happens to close during that specific minute rather than any scheduled announcement or economic release.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$232K in lifetime turnover and $255K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $138K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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