Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 84,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 74,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 88,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 68,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 70,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 76,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
This market settles on Bitcoin's noon ET price on Binance's BTC/USDT pair on 10 May 2026, with resolution determined by the 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The current 1% implied probability reflects an expectation that Bitcoin will trade substantially below the specified threshold at that precise moment. On Polymarket's order book, this pricing emerges from traders balancing the historical volatility of Bitcoin against the specificity of hitting an exact price point within a single minute during a defined timezone window.
Bitcoin's intraday volatility typically ranges between 2–5% on ordinary trading days, though this varies considerably depending on macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment. Historical precedent suggests that single-minute candle closes at predetermined price levels carry inherently low probability unless those levels sit very close to current spot prices. The 1% probability here indicates the market is pricing in either a substantial directional move or significant distance between the threshold and expected May 2026 valuations. Comparable single-minute settlement markets on Polymarket have shown that precision timing and exchange-specific data create natural friction that depresses probabilities for outcomes requiring exact execution.
Traders monitoring this position should track Federal Reserve policy signals, major macroeconomic data releases scheduled for early May 2026, and any significant developments in cryptocurrency regulation or institutional adoption that might drive directional Bitcoin moves. Binance's operational status and any potential trading halts would also affect settlement mechanics. The noon ET timestamp falls during overlapping US and European trading hours, typically a period of moderate liquidity on major pairs.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$350K in lifetime turnover and $317K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $201K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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