Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming NBA game between Knicks and Spurs, scheduled for 2026-06-04 at 00:30 UTC: This event will resolve to the team + shot-type combination corresponding to the first made field goal of the game, as recorded in the official NBA play-by-play. Free throws do not count — only made field goals (two-point or three-point). If no field goal is made in the game, this event resolves to "Other". If the game is postponed, this event remains open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled with no make-up, or the outcome cannot be determined from official sources, this neg-risk event resolves to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Knicks Two-Pointer | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Knicks Three-Pointer | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Spurs Two-Pointer | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Spurs Three-Pointer | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Other | 33% YES | 68% NO |
The Knicks travel to San Antonio for an NBA matchup on 4 June 2026, with this market tracking which team scores the opening field goal and whether it comes via a two-point or three-point attempt. The settlement hinges on official NBA play-by-play data; free throws are excluded. Current order-book pricing on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, suggesting the market perceives roughly equal likelihood across the available outcomes (Knicks two-pointer, Knicks three-pointer, Spurs two-pointer, Spurs three-pointer, or no field goal made).
Historical opening-possession data shows that teams shooting first does not strongly correlate with possession order alone; shooting efficiency, defensive intensity, and early-game tempo matter substantially. The Spurs' deliberate offensive system typically produces lower three-point volume early in games compared to the Knicks' perimeter-oriented approach, which could skew probabilities toward New York three-pointers. However, San Antonio's interior scoring strength and defensive discipline often force opponents into contested looks. The 50% midpoint on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus lean toward either franchise's shot-type profile.
Relevant catalysts include roster confirmation closer to tip-off, as injury reports or late scratches can alter pace and shot selection. The Spurs' recent offensive trends and the Knicks' current three-point attempt rate should be monitored through official team announcements. Game-time conditions—arena temperature, crowd energy, referee crew assignments—remain unknowable until the match begins, preserving the market's current equilibrium.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Knicks @ Spurs: Which team and shot type will produce the first field goal?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9 in lifetime turnover and $26 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for basketball contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: