Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Revival of a Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ragtime | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Book A | — | |
| Book C | — | |
| Book E | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Cats: The Jellicle Ball | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Book B | — | |
The 79th Annual Tony Awards ceremony takes place on 7 June 2026, with the Best Revival of a Musical category representing one of Broadway's most competitive honours. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for the listed contender, suggesting meaningful uncertainty amongst traders about which production will prevail amongst the likely nominees.
Historical Tony voting patterns demonstrate that revival musicals compete within a distinct subset of the broader musical theatre landscape. The category has historically favoured productions with strong critical consensus and sustained box office performance through the eligibility window. Recent years have seen revivals of established properties—such as *Company*, *Merrily We Roll Along*, and *Hell's Kitchen*—dominate nominations, though winners often reflect a balance between artistic merit and cultural resonance rather than pure commercial success. The 45% probability indicates traders view the listed show as a credible contender but not a clear frontrunner.
Key catalysts shaping the market include the official Tony nominations announcement (typically in May 2026), which will clarify the competitive field and allow traders to assess relative critical reception and industry momentum. Broadway trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter will provide ongoing coverage of opening nights, critical reviews, and box office trajectories through spring 2026. The eligibility window closure and voter registration deadlines will also influence market positioning as the ceremony approaches. Any major cast changes, extended runs, or critical reassessments of competing revivals could shift probabilities materially in the weeks preceding the vote.
The Tony Award for Best Revival of a Musical has been awarded since 1994. Before that time, both plays and musicals were considered together for the Tony Award for Best Revival. The award is given to the producers of the best musical play which has already appeared on Broadway in a previous production, or is regarded as being in the common theatrical reperto
The Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play has only been awarded since 1994. Prior to that, plays and musicals were considered together for the Tony Award for Best Revival. The award is given to the best non-musical play that has appeared on Broadway in a previous production, or which is determined to be a "classic" or in the historical or popular repertoire
The Tony Award for Best Revival was given to the best play, musical or non-musical, which had already appeared on Broadway in a previous production. It was presented from 1977, where it was called Most Innovative Production of a Revival and later Reproduction in 1980, until 1994, when it was split into the Best Revival of a Musical and the Best Revival of a
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Tony Awards: Best Revival of a Musical" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$94 in lifetime turnover and $229 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for awards contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $94 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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