Trade: AutoZone Q3 domestic same store sales growth?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to AutoZone's announced domestic same store sales growth for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $225
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| 3.5%–4.5% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 5.5%–6.5% | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| <3.5% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 4.5%–5.5% | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 6.5%+ | 45% YES | 55% NO |
Market context
AutoZone's third fiscal quarter of 2026 will conclude in August 2025, with earnings typically announced in September. The market is pricing a 47% probability that domestic same-store sales growth will exceed a threshold yet to be specified in the order book details. This metric measures sales from locations open at least one year, excluding new store openings, and serves as a key indicator of underlying demand in the automotive aftermarket sector.
AutoZone's same-store sales performance has historically reflected broader consumer spending patterns and vehicle maintenance cycles. The company reported positive comparable sales in recent quarters despite macroeconomic headwinds, though growth rates have moderated from pandemic-era peaks. Historical Q3 performance has been mixed, with seasonal factors influencing results as summer driving season transitions to autumn. The current 47% implied probability suggests the market perceives meaningful uncertainty around whether growth will meet expectations, reflecting both the cyclical nature of automotive spending and AutoZone's operational execution.
Key catalysts include macroeconomic data on consumer spending and employment, which typically drive discretionary vehicle maintenance spending. Oil price movements and vehicle age demographics also influence demand for replacement parts and accessories. AutoZone management guidance from prior earnings calls will establish expectations for Q3, whilst any supply chain disruptions or competitive pressures could shift performance. The settlement window closes 26 May 2026, allowing traders approximately eight months to reassess probabilities as economic conditions and company-specific developments emerge.
Wikipedia Context
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AutoZone ParkAutoZone Park is a Minor League Baseball stadium located in downtown Memphis, Tennessee, and is home to the Memphis Redbirds of the International League, the Triple-A affiliate of Major League Baseball's (MLB) St. Louis Cardinals. It previously hosted Memphis 901 FC of the USL Championship, the second tier of U.S. soccer, from 2019 to 2024.
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AutoZoneAutoZone, Inc., doing business as AutoZone, is an American retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories, the largest in the United States. Founded in 1979, AutoZone has 7,140 stores across the United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Brazil, and the US Virgin Islands. The company is based in Memphis, Tennessee.
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ARCA Menards Series WestThe ARCA Menards Series West, formerly the NASCAR K&N Pro Series West, NASCAR AutoZone West Series, NASCAR Winston West Series, NASCAR Winston Transcontinental Series and NASCAR Camping World West Series, is a regional stock car racing series owned and operated by the Automobile Racing Club of America (ARCA) and the National Association for Stock Car Auto Ra
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Liberty BowlThe Liberty Bowl is an annual American college football bowl game played in late December or early January since 1959. For its first five years, it was played at Philadelphia Municipal Stadium in Philadelphia before being held at Atlantic City Convention Hall in 1964. Since 1965, the game has been held at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. B
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AutoZone Q3 domestic same store sales growth?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $225 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for autozone contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AutoZone Q3 domestic same store sales growth?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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