Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 38.5% | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| 38.0% | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| 37.5% | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 37.0% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Donald Trump's approval rating will be tracked through Nate Silver's aggregator from late April through May 2026, with the market resolving affirmatively if his rating dips to or below the specified threshold at any point during that window. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 89% probability of this occurring, suggesting traders assess a substantial likelihood of Trump's approval declining to that level within the six-week period.
Historical approval trajectories for sitting presidents reveal significant volatility tied to economic data releases, geopolitical events, and legislative outcomes. Trump's approval ratings during his first term fluctuated between the mid-30s and low 50s depending on external shocks and news cycles. The threshold's specific level will determine how realistic the 89% probability is; lower thresholds require more dramatic deterioration, whilst higher ones reflect normal polling variance. Comparable periods show that approval ratings rarely remain static over a month-long window, with most presidents experiencing at least modest movement.
Traders should monitor economic indicators scheduled for release through May, particularly employment figures and inflation data, as these historically correlate with approval shifts. Legislative developments in Congress, any major foreign policy incidents, or significant legal proceedings could catalyse rapid movement. The Silver Bulletin aggregator's methodology incorporates multiple pollsters with varying methodologies, so individual poll releases will feed into the finalised data points that determine settlement. The 89% probability reflects confidence that normal political volatility will produce at least one data point meeting the threshold criteria.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How low will Trump's approval rating go by end of May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$337 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for approvals contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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