Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Shadowrocket | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| HotSchedules | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| DualShot Recorder | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Procreate Pocket | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AnkiMobile Flashcards | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ye said | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SkyView | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns which application will occupy the number one position in Apple's paid app rankings for the United States iPhone App Store on 8 May 2026. Apple's Top Charts list updates daily based on sales volume, with the ranking reflecting aggregate purchases across all regions and user demographics. The resolution source is explicitly the "Top Paid Apps" section under Top Charts on the US App Store, accessible via the direct link provided.
Historical precedent suggests the top paid app position remains relatively stable, typically held by established productivity, gaming, or utility applications with sustained consumer demand. Applications like Procreate, Notchmeister, and various premium games have maintained top-five positions for extended periods. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either exceptional confidence in a specific application's dominance or limited trading activity establishing price discovery. With settlement occurring in May 2026, traders should monitor whether any major app releases, pricing changes, or promotional campaigns might disrupt the incumbent leader's position.
Key catalysts include new app launches from major developers, significant price adjustments to existing top-ranked applications, and seasonal purchasing patterns. Apple's App Store algorithm changes and featured placement decisions can influence sales velocity. Traders should track announcements from major publishers and monitor the actual Top Charts rankings in the weeks preceding the resolution date, as real-time data will provide clearer signals than forward-looking speculation given the relatively near-term settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for app store contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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