Trade: Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on May 12?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on May 12 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $452
- Total Volume
- $37
- 24h Volume
- $37
- Open Interest
- $37
Market outcomes
| $265 | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| $270 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| $275 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $280 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| $285 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
Amazon's share price on 12 May 2026 will determine whether AMZN closes above a specified threshold on that date. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC, using the official closing price from Nasdaq or the last valid on-exchange trade should any disruption occur during the final session. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies a 54% probability of an affirmative resolution, reflecting modest bullish positioning relative to the strike level.
Historical volatility in AMZN around earnings announcements and macroeconomic data releases provides context for interpreting this probability. Amazon typically reports quarterly results in late April or early May, meaning Q1 2026 earnings could fall within the settlement window or immediately prior. The stock has historically moved 3–5% on earnings surprises, though the direction depends on revenue growth, operating margin performance, and AWS segment guidance. If earnings fall before 12 May, the market will have priced in the reaction; if they fall after, uncertainty remains elevated. Additionally, broader equity market conditions—particularly technology sector momentum and interest rate expectations—will influence AMZN's trajectory into May.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and any major cloud infrastructure announcements from competitors. Amazon's advertising business and AWS pricing dynamics have become material drivers of investor sentiment. Geopolitical developments affecting supply chains and consumer spending patterns could also shift the probability materially. The current 54% YES reading suggests the order book sees modest upside bias, though the tight probability distribution indicates genuine uncertainty about the specific price level.
Wikipedia Context
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Amazon and trade unionsWarehouse workers of Amazon, the largest American e-commerce retailer with 750,000 employees, have organized for workplace improvements in light of the company's scrutinized labor practices and stance against unions. Worker actions have included work stoppages, and have won concessions including increased pay, safety precautions, and time off. There are uni
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Amazon miniTVAmazon miniTV, now branded as Amazon MX Player, is a free over-the-top streaming service of Amazon available in India. It is an ad-supported service. MiniTV service can be accessed from Amazon’s shopping app, on Amazon Prime Video, Fire TV, Smart TVs, or downloaded from Play Store.
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Amazon Monument (Benin)The Amazon Monument is a statue honoring the Dahomey Amazons. A metal structure covered in bronze, it is 30m high and weighs 150 tons. It stands on the Esplanade des Amazones in the 12th district of the city of Cotonou in southern Benin. It is the second tallest statue in Africa.
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Arena da AmazôniaArena da Amazônia is a football stadium in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, located on the former site of the Vivaldão stadium. The stadium has an all-seater capacity of 42,924 and was constructed from 2010 to 2014 as part of Brazil's hosting of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. It hosted matches of the football tournament at the 2016 Summer Olympics. During the World Cup,
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$37 in lifetime turnover and $452 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for amzn contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on May 12?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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