Trade: Which company has the #2 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $543
Market outcomes
| 22% YES | 78% NO | |
| Anthropic | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| OpenAI | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Alibaba | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Z.ai | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| xAI | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| DeepSeek | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Moonshot | 21% YES | 79% NO |
Market context
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, maintained by LMSYS at UC Berkeley, ranks large language models through comparative human evaluations with style control enabled. This market resolves on which company owns the model ranked second on that leaderboard on 31 July 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 35% implied probability, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which organisation will hold the runner-up position in eighteen months' time.
Historically, the top positions on Chatbot Arena have remained relatively concentrated among a small set of developers. OpenAI's models have consistently occupied leading ranks since the leaderboard's inception, whilst Anthropic's Claude variants have frequently competed for top-three placement. Google's Gemini, Meta's Llama, and other entrants have shown variable performance. The second-rank position has proven more volatile than first place, with different organisations cycling through it as model releases and evaluations shift. This volatility explains why the crowd assigns moderate probability rather than favouring any single incumbent.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through the settlement window. Major model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and other labs will directly influence leaderboard rankings through new evaluation rounds. The frequency and methodology of Chatbot Arena evaluations themselves matter—LMSYS periodically adjusts evaluation protocols and model inclusion criteria. Announcements regarding new model capabilities, particularly around reasoning and instruction-following, typically precede leaderboard shifts. Additionally, the specific implementation of "style control" in evaluations may evolve, potentially affecting which models perform relatively better or worse under those constraints.
Wikipedia Context
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White Company
The White Company was a European free company active during the 14th century. Initially known as the Great Company of English and Germans, it was later commonly referred to as the English Company. The company arrived in Italy in 1361, led first by the German mercenary Albert Sterz and later by the Englishman John Hawkwood, under whom it gained its greatest n
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The White CompanyThe White Company is a historical adventure novel by British writer Arthur Conan Doyle, set during the Hundred Years' War. The story is set in England, France and Spain, in the years 1366 and 1367, against the background of the campaign of Edward the Black Prince, to restore Peter of Castile to the throne of the Kingdom of Castile. The climax of the book occ
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Which (command)
In computing, which is a command for various operating systems used to identify the location of executables. The command is available in Unix and Unix-like systems, the AROS shell, for FreeDOS and for Microsoft Windows. The functionality of the which command is similar to some implementations of the type command. POSIX specifies a command named command that
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The White Company (retailer)The White Company (U.K.) Limited, trading as the White Company, is a retailer of bedroom, home, clothing, and fragrance goods, whose 32,000-square-foot (3,000-square-metre) head office is located at Television Centre, London.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which company has the #2 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which company has the #2 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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