Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public. Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| On or prior to May 6 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 11 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 12 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| May 13 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 16 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 17 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 18 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| May 21 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Google's release of Gemini 3.2 as a publicly available model represents a specific product milestone within the company's generative AI roadmap. The market settles on the calendar date (ET) when this version becomes accessible to general users, encompassing any major variant (Pro, Flash, Flash-lite) or successor designation that qualifies as a direct progression from Gemini 3.1. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether this release will occur before the 31 May 2026 settlement deadline, with no active buyers pricing in near-term availability.
Google's historical release cadence provides context for interpreting current odds. Gemini 3 launched in December 2024, followed by Gemini 3.1 in September 2024—a roughly three-month interval between major versions. However, the company has shown variable timelines for subsequent releases, and no official announcement of Gemini 3.2 specifications or target dates has been made public. The absence of concrete scheduling information explains why the market has attracted minimal trading activity and zero probability mass.
Traders should monitor Google's developer announcements, earnings calls, and AI research publications for signals regarding Gemini 3.2 development status. Any official roadmap disclosure, beta programme launch, or competitive pressure from rival models could shift expectations materially. The settlement window extends through May 2026, providing approximately 18 months for such catalysts to emerge, though the current order book suggests market participants view a release within this timeframe as unlikely absent new information.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Gemini 3.2 released on...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$91K in lifetime turnover and $174K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $19K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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