Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 8 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $280 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $285 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $290 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $295 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $300 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Apple's closing price on 8 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The settlement uses the official closing price published by the exchange for that trading session, or if no official close is published due to trading halts or technical issues, the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session. The market currently shows 100% implied probability on the order book, reflecting either an extremely high strike price relative to expected trading ranges or minimal liquidity at current odds.
Historical precedent suggests that when implied probabilities reach extremes on equity price targets, they typically reflect either very wide strike bands or thin order book depth. Apple's stock has traded within defined ranges across most market conditions; the 100% reading here likely indicates the strike is set substantially below realistic closing scenarios for that date, making the "Yes" outcome nearly certain from a statistical standpoint. Comparable equity markets on Polymarket show similar probability clustering when strike prices are positioned far from expected spot prices.
Traders should monitor Apple's earnings calendar, product announcements, and broader market conditions in the months preceding May 2026. Macroeconomic data, semiconductor supply chain developments, and competitive pressures in consumer electronics remain relevant to Apple's valuation trajectory. Any trading halt or exchange closure on 8 May would trigger the fallback resolution mechanism using the last valid trade price, a scenario worth considering given the specificity of the settlement window ending at 20:00 UTC.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for aapl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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