Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Arda Azkara and Khololwam Montsi in the Centurion 2, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arda Azkara' if Arda Azkara advances against Khololwam Montsi. This market will resolve to 'Khololwam Montsi' if Khololwam Montsi advances against Arda Azkara. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 46%, making this a coinflip market with 8 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $21K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Set 1 Winner | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Match O/U 21.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
Arda Azkara and Khololwam Montsi are scheduled to meet in the second round of the Centurion 2 tournament on 5 June 2026 at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Azkara's advancement at 48%, reflecting genuine uncertainty between two players operating at similar competitive levels. Settlement occurs by 12 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion before the market defaults to 50-50 if unresolved.
Comparable early-round matchups at ATP 250 level tournaments typically see probability distributions tighten considerably once seeding and recent form data become available. Currently, the 48-52 split suggests the market has limited historical head-to-head data or recent ranking divergence between these players. Traders should monitor both players' performances in qualifying rounds and any pre-tournament warm-up events, as momentum shifts often precede main-draw matches by several days.
Key catalysts include official tournament draw confirmation, injury announcements, and surface-specific performance metrics. The Centurion 2 is played on hard courts, making recent hard-court results from ATP 500 or Masters events particularly relevant. Court conditions, weather forecasts for early June, and any late withdrawals could shift the implied probability materially. Polymarket's order book will reflect these updates in real time as traders adjust positions ahead of the 5 June match date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 12 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($21K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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