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Referendum

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-fo…

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Market Outcomes

Pass 12-15% 0% YES100% NO
No Pass 0% YES100% NO
Pass 15%+ 0% YES100% NO
Pass 3-6% 97% YES3% NO
Pass <3% 3% YES97% NO
Pass 9-12% 0% YES100% NO
Pass 6-9% 0% YES100% NO
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