Question 1

How are conflict-outcome markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Each market specifies a named source — typically Reuters, AP, or a UN document. Markets require unambiguous confirmation before settling. Disputed outcomes escalate to the UMA optimistic oracle.

Question 2

Can I trade climate and environmental targets?

Accepted Answer

Yes — Paris Agreement milestones, national net-zero deadlines, and specific COP agreements have live markets keyed to published official commitments.

Question 3

What about space missions?

Accepted Answer

SpaceX Starship flights, NASA Artemis milestones, China's Tiangong missions, and commercial space milestones all have per-launch or per-milestone markets.

Question 4

How do sanctions markets work?

Accepted Answer

Sanctions markets resolve based on official government gazette or regulatory agency publications. Will the EU extend sanctions by the review date? Will a country be added to a specific list? Each market specifies the exact resolution source.

Question 5

Are geopolitics markets long-duration?

Accepted Answer

Yes — many geopolitical markets stay open for months or years. Traders hold positions with high conviction and reprice when major diplomatic events occur.

Question 6

Are geopolitical markets ethically structured?

Accepted Answer

Yes — PolyGram is careful to structure conflict markets around diplomatic outcomes (ceasefires, treaties, sanctions, prisoner releases, humanitarian corridors) rather than around violence or casualties. Resolution criteria reference official documents (UN resolutions, named agency confirmations) so markets cannot become incentives for harm. The platform's policy team reviews every conflict-related market before listing.

地政学予測市場 2026

Top Markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?