Question 1

How are election markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Every market specifies its resolution source in advance — typically the Associated Press call, the relevant election commission, or the official government gazette. Disputes escalate to the UMA optimistic oracle before funds settle.

Question 2

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Accepted Answer

Yes — academic research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls. The Iowa Electronic Markets beat the final Gallup poll in 12 of 15 US presidential elections. Markets aggregate real-money conviction, creating a self-correcting mechanism that surveys cannot replicate.

Question 3

Can I trade international elections?

Accepted Answer

Yes — PolyGram covers UK, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Dutch, Brazilian, Mexican, Indian, Japanese, South Korean and Philippine elections, plus EU leadership appointments.

Question 4

What's the biggest election market right now?

Accepted Answer

The 2028 US presidential race typically carries over $1B in cumulative volume. The 2026 midterms generate hundreds of millions across individual Senate and gubernatorial races.

Question 5

Can I trade election margins and turnout?

Accepted Answer

Yes — PolyGram lists margin-of-victory, turnout threshold, and party-control markets alongside direct candidate-outcome markets.

Question 6

When do election markets stop trading?

Accepted Answer

Most election markets remain open through to the official certified result, which can extend days or weeks after polls close. The Associated Press call typically triggers an interim settlement, with a final resolution if disputed. Disputed outcomes escalate to the UMA optimistic oracle. You can continue trading right up to the moment the market is paused for settlement.

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