This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
Market outcomes
| November 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Successful splash down? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| February 28 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate — set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
The market is scheduled to close on 31 January 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.