This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
Market outcomes
| 40-59 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 60-79 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 220-239 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| 240-259 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| 260-279 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| 280-299 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 300-319 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 320-339 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Award shows, reality TV and streaming-hit markets resolve from the official broadcaster announcement or industry body (the Academy for the Oscars, the EBU for Eurovision, Nielsen for US ratings). Because these events have moderate liquidity but high public interest, odds can move sharply as finalists are announced or critics' picks go public. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket order book with a single-tap trading UX.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
The market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.