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Geopolitics

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is …

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Market Outcomes

United Kingdom 2% YES98% NO
Canada 0% YES100% NO
India 2% YES98% NO
Pakistan 3% YES97% NO
France 2% YES98% NO
Germany 1% YES99% NO
Netherlands 1% YES99% NO
Greece 1% YES99% NO
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