This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Market outcomes
| August 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| October 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| November 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 80% YES | 21% NO |
Polymarket settles political markets from authoritative sources — Associated Press race calls for US elections, the relevant electoral commission for national votes, and the UMA optimistic oracle for contested or ambiguous resolutions. Prices you see are probabilities derived from thousands of traders deploying real capital; they update in real time as new polls, debates, endorsements and news hit the tape. PolyGram surfaces the same order book with an email-first login and USDC settlement on Polygon.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
The market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2025. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.