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Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Opened · Settles · 90 comments

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S.

Liquidity
$3.9M
Total Volume
$44.9M
24h Volume
$2.2M
Open Interest
$5.5M
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Market outcomes

Kevin Warsh 99% YES1% NO
Judy Shelton 1% YES99% NO
Kevin Hassett 0% YES100% NO
Christopher Waller 0% YES100% NO
Jerome Powell 0% YES100% NO
Stephen Miran 0% YES100% NO
Scott Bessent 0% YES100% NO
Other

How political prediction markets work

Polymarket settles political markets from authoritative sources — Associated Press race calls for US elections, the relevant electoral commission for national votes, and the UMA optimistic oracle for contested or ambiguous resolutions. Prices you see are probabilities derived from thousands of traders deploying real capital; they update in real time as new polls, debates, endorsements and news hit the tape. PolyGram surfaces the same order book with an email-first login and USDC settlement on Polygon.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market settle?

The market is scheduled to close on 31 October 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.

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