This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Market outcomes
| March 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| June 30 | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| April 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Polymarket settles political markets from authoritative sources — Associated Press race calls for US elections, the relevant electoral commission for national votes, and the UMA optimistic oracle for contested or ambiguous resolutions. Prices you see are probabilities derived from thousands of traders deploying real capital; they update in real time as new polls, debates, endorsements and news hit the tape. PolyGram surfaces the same order book with an email-first login and USDC settlement on Polygon.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
The market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.