This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which U.S. President Donald Trump next visits China. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market outcomes
| On or prior to May 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 5 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| May 7 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| May 9 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| May 11 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| May 13 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| May 15 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate — set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
The market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.