This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Apr 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Apr 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Apr 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? | 92% YES | 9% NO |
Crypto markets on Polymarket typically settle against a specific index — the Coinbase spot price at a defined UTC moment is the most common. Binary markets pay $1 per YES share if the price closes above the threshold, $0 if not; scalar markets pay proportional to the final price. UMA's optimistic oracle handles any disputes. PolyGram adds a mobile-first interface, USDC deposits without a wallet, and portfolio analytics on top of the same underlying liquidity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 92%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
The market is scheduled to close on 26 April 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.